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2014 NCAA Tournament Preview: First Round

It’s that time of the year again. Our Game Magazine‘s college editors Rachael Caldwell, JJ Duke, and Ruth Moore preview the first-round action of the 2014 NCAA Women’s Soccer Tournament. Joining in on the fun is Glenn Crooks, former women’s soccer head coach at Rutgers. They break down the first-round matchups, which teams have the easiest roads to the College Cup, and offer thoughts on possible upsets (Buffalo?).

Bracket Quadrant #1

Seeds

  • #1 UCLA
  • #2 Virginia
  • #3 Kentucky
  • #4 Pepperdine

Bracket Outlook

Who’s ready for penalty kicks? This quadrant could potentially see a quarterfinal repeat of last year’s exciting semifinal match between UCLA and Virginia. Both UCLA and Virginia could face one of two other Pac-12 foes before facing each other, though, as Southern California and Arizona State join them as unseeded but still dangerous opponents. There are no easy roads to the College Cup,  especially in this quadrant.

Which Seed Has the Easiest Route to the College Cup?

Virginia-100x100Two-seed Virginia might as well have been gifted a second No. 1 in this quadrant. With an 18-2-0 record and half a season of testing itself against one of the toughest conferences in women’s soccer, UVA could conceivably go all the way to a quarterfinal matchup with UCLA without stumbling.

Though three-seed Kentucky has the easiest first-round matchup of the top four seeds here, the SEC side will likely run into a Pac-12 team in the second round while UVA faces a member of the less dominant Big Ten. Regardless of whether Virginia faces Kentucky or Arizona State, the Cavaliers will have the momentum to edge out any third-round opponent. The “easiest route” won’t take them to the College Cup, though. Look for the Bruins to get the best of UVA for the second year in row.

Which Seeded Team is on a First-Round Upset Alert?

It’s a toss-up as to which team has it worse in the first round: No. 1 UCLA or No. 4 Pepperdine. Pepperdine faces a USC team it beat 2-1 on the road in September, but the Waves’ key wins have been narrow affairs. As a four seed and an at-large bid from the WCC, Pepperdine will make no mistake in preparing for a tough fight through this end of the quadrant.

Unbeaten defending champion UCLA, however, has been set up with a more challenging opponent than any other one or two seed in this year’s tournament. San Diego fell, 2-0, to UCLA back in August but has gone 4-2-1 against ranked opponents this season, including a 1-1 tie with USC and more recently, a 2-1 win over four seed Pepperdine less than a month ago. The Bruins can’t count on coasting past the Toreros, especially not with the weight of that huge target on their backs. The Bruins are well-equipped to make a title defense — it’s just going to be at least as hard as it was last year to get that far.

Featured Match

Obviously, I think UCLA–San Diego is going to be a game to watch, along with Pepperdine–USC. But if you’re looking for a fun competition outside of the seeded teams, try Rutgers–La Salle and South Florida–Illinois State. Rutgers proved an upstart in its first season in the Big Ten and will host the relatively local La Salle, who ran the table in the Atlantic 10. Although history between these two teams favors Rutgers, the two sides haven’t met in more than 10 years. Further south, take in a preview of potential dark horse South Florida. The Bulls have beaten the ACC’s Boston College, Big 12’s Texas, and their own conference winner, Connecticut, in the regular season. Illinois State advanced past Louisville in the first round of last year’s tournament and could make the Bulls run at home.

Additional Thoughts

This really should have been OGM editor Brandi Ortega’s quadrant to write about. Since our UCLA alum has recused herself from NCAA tournament coverage, I’ll add the note I know she would have written: #BruWINS

Editor’s (Brandi’s) note — Ha! Never mention penalty kicks to a Bruin.

— by Ruth Moore

 

Bracket Quadrant #2

Seeds

  • #1 Stanford
  • #2 Florida
  • #3 Texas Tech
  • #4 Washington

Bracket Outlook

This bracket has the look of unpredictability, and outside of the top two seeds’ first-round matches, the underdogs have a fighting chance. There are some intriguing second- and third-round potential matchups if the higher seeded teams hold serve in the opening rounds, including a Pac-12 showdown in which fourth-seeded Washington will look for revenge against top-seeded Stanford after a 4-1 loss early October.

Also interesting will be to see how well the Florida Gators handle themselves as a returning second seed after bowing out in the second round of last year’s tournament. The Gators are also coming off of an early exit in the SEC tournament, perhaps giving them a little chip on their shoulders coming into the Big Dance.

Which Seed Has the Easiest Route to the College Cup?

Stanford-100x100Stanford might have the easiest route to the College Cup of the four number one seeds. Traditionally, the Cardinal have been nearly perfect in postseason play when at home at Cagan Stadium and have won all nine of their home matches in the past three NCAA tournaments. And as the number one seed in their portion of the bracket, they’ll have home field advantage until the College Cup. Also, they hold a familiarity factor against teams in their bracket, having already defeated Washington, Florida, and California in 2014. Coming into the tournament, the Cardinal have won their last seven games and in that stretch have outscored their opponents, 20-4, making them a very dangerous side to play against.

Which Seeded Team is on a First-Round Upset Alert?

It hasn’t been happy times recently up in Seattle for the Washington Huskies, as they finished the year 0-2-2 in their final four games, including a 6-1 drubbing at the hands of UCLA at home. This puts them on upset alert against Rider University on Friday night. Washington is making its first appearance in the NCAA tournament since 2012 but haven’t won an NCAA match since an Elite Eight appearance in 2010.

Senior Jaclyn Softli, the Huskies’ leading goal scorer, has been goalless during their latest span despite hitting double digits on the year. Washington will face a Rider Broncs team that has made the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history and are 7-2-2 in their last 11 matches, with one of those draws coming in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Championship against Fairfield before winning in penalty kicks.

Featured Match

Round one’s featured match is taking place on Sunday afternoon as the Kansas Jayhawks host the Missouri Tigers in Lawrence, Kansas. The Jayhawks took everyone by surprise by winning 13 of their first 14 matches of the season and cracked the Top 10 in the NCAA polls. But it was a hard landing back to earth for the Jayhawks as they dropped three of their final four matches of the regular season and lost in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.

The Jayhawks now face a pesky Missouri team that narrowly lost to South Carolina in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament and are led by midfielder Kaysie Clark and her team high 11 assists (good for second in the SEC). The winner of this game could be backed to make the third round in the easier of the two halves of this bracket.

Additional Thoughts

I’ve highlighted Rider University before, and as a recent alum, it was a proud moment to see that Broncs make their first NCAA tournament in program history after winning the MAAC Conference Championship. This is a team that I’ve personally seen grow and improve year after year under seventh-year Head Coach Drayson Hounsome. I know the campus in Lawrenceville, N.J., was rocking on Sunday evening, since this is the first Rider team to advance to an NCAA tournament since the baseball team traveled to the Austin Regional in the College World Series in 2010.

by JJ Duke

 

Bracket Quadrant #3

Seeds

  • #1 Florida State
  • #2 North Carolina
  • #3 South Carolina
  • #4 Wisconsin

Bracket Outlook

At first glance, and even after thorough analysis, one will come to the same conclusion: Florida State should meet North Carolina for the second time this season in the regional final. While a host of entrants in this region can claim to have the ability and wherewithal to contrive an upset of the top two seeds, it would appear that the Seminoles and the Tar Heels offer too much resistance in the form of talent, experience, and two coaches whose history would indicate that their sides are at their best come tournament time. Florida State mentor Mark Krikorian had a periodization calendar for his athletes before most of us understood this 12-month tool that leads to peak performance in November and early December. Meanwhile, Anson Dorrance has forever utilized his range of youth national team reserves that more often than not have led to national titles — 21 in the 31 years of the competition in women’s soccer.

Which Seed Has the Easiest Route to the College Cup?

FloridaState-100x100With the exception of South Alabama (Florida State’s first-round opponent) and South Dakota St. (North Carolina’s opening contest), this bracket offers a balanced level of challenges en route to the Final Four. Florida State, with its ability to play effectively against a variety of styles, is the least likely to have a hiccup along the way. It’s unbeaten in its last 15 matches and is the choice to honor their seed and advance to the College Cup.

This isn’t a clear path with second- and third-round matches projected against Boston University and Wisconsin. If North Carolina can advance past the likes of BYU, Clemson, South Carolina, Colorado or Washington State, then the likely rematch emerges with Florida State in the Elite Eight. The Seminoles and Tar Heels played to an evenly contested 1-1 draw in Chapel Hill on October 23, with the Seminoles improving to 4-0-1 in their last five meetings with the Tar Heels. Florida State has also beaten two-seed Virginia twice this season, most recently a 1-0 win in the ACC Championship match.

Which Seeded Team is on a First-Round Upset Alert?

While the tournament selection committee perfected its mandate of limiting travel with strategic geographical matchups, they left a pair of seeded teams with daunting first-round matches. Number three South Carolina drew 5,855 spectators for its 0-1 loss earlier this season to Clemson. The Gamecocks expect a similar turnout in the hopes of avenging that loss to the Tigers in Friday’s first round. Clemson finished fifth in the challenging ACC, which qualified six teams for the NCAA tournament in a “down” year for the league. It’s the 16th straight year that the ACC has had at least six teams in the tournament.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Wisconsin, the Big Ten Tournament Champion, has been paired with unbeaten DePaul. The Blue Demons, joining UCLA as the only other team in the field without a defeat, won both the Big East regular season and tournament championship. If not for committee restrictions, the second round or Sweet 16 would have been the appropriate slot for this Midwestern matchup. They had one common opponent and both recorded victories against Nebraska, although the Blue Demons managed to get their “W” on the road.

Featured Match

There are many attractive first-round trials in this group. Can an unbeaten DePaul earn national respect with a win at Wisconsin? South Carolina and Clemson will meet for the second time in Columbia, S.C. Likewise, Georgia at Central Florida after UGA won the regular season tilt.

But in Boston comes a true derby. It’s not quite the Merseyside of Liverpool–Everton, but only eight miles separate Northeastern U. and host Boston U. The Terriers are playing in their 12th NCAA tournament under Nancy Feldman, whose team features six players who have had multiple game-winning goals. Jenna Fisher has scored one goal for every two shots on frame – seven in all and three that were winners — and she assisted on both goals in the 2-1 Patriot League Championship match at Colgate. Northeastern, whose coach Tracey Leone played for the United States in the first Women’s World Cup in 1991, is less experienced when it comes to the postseason but they have a 1-0 win at BU in mid-September to their credit and won their second consecutive CAA title. Goalkeeper Paige Burnett has a miniscule 0.24 goals against and is tied for the NCAA lead with 16 clean sheets. Ten different Huskies have scored game-winning goals this season. This will be an entertaining one to watch on a chilly day in Beantown.

Additional Thoughts

Would the No. 9 RPI team meet No. 18 in the opening round of the NCAA men’s or women’s basketball tournament?

The answer is a resounding No, and with 530 million dollars in unrestricted cash sitting in the NCAA bank, it begs the question as to why it needs to happen on the soccer side of championship competition.

When No. 9 Wisconsin plays host to No. 18 DePaul, the Blue Demons will travel 147 miles by bus to the competition. The NCAA has mandated that any trip below 500 miles is by land and as instructed, the selection committee is required to limit the number of flights. The University of Georgia has a 7-1/2 hour bus ride (480 miles) to Orlando for its match with Central Florida while BYU just makes the cut at 493 miles and will bus from Provo to Boulder for the opening round tussle with Colorado. The Jackrabbits of South Dakota St. have a first-round flight — 1,398 miles to Chapel Hill (as does Rider flying out to Seattle). The restrictions present us with No. 31 Clemson at No. 11 South Carolina. Top programs always focus on earning the prestigious seed in the NCAA tournament. But what does it really mean? In this bracket it means that Wisconsin and South Carolina, playing in two of the top conferences the country, have been treated unfairly — and not by the selection committee, but by the hierarchy of the NCAA.

by Glenn Crooks

 

Bracket Quadrant #4

Seeds

  • #1 Texas A&M
  • #2 Penn State
  • #3 West Virginia
  • #4 Notre Dame

Bracket Outlook

The story of this quadrant seems to be the potential collision course Penn State and Texas A&M are on to have to face each other to the Elite Eight. That being said, there’s quite a few teams not to overlook in this part of the bracket.

Want to root for a mid-major that could be this year’s Cinderella? Look no further than the Rice Owls. Want a team that hit its stride just in time for the tournament? That’s your No. 1 seed, the Texas A&M Aggies. But Rachael, what about a seeded team that’s had some struggles this year? Ah, hello Notre Dame Fighting Irish and their troubling theme of giving up leads. Oh, and just to round things out for good measure, there’s also the team with a chip on its shoulder in Virginia Tech. From national one seed last year to one game away from facing the three seed this year. How the mighty fall when student-athletes finish their education and earn their degrees.

Which Seed Has the Easiest Route to the College Cup?

It’s so easy to pick the one seed here, and for that reason I’m upset with myself for doing so. Texas A&M has a clear path in front of them. They have to shoot themselves in the foot to miss the College Cup. After they bid adieu to Houston Baptist, I expect they’ll face Oklahoma State. The Cowgirls have had a rough season, and are going to be gassed after sliding by Arizona in the first round. Bring on Rice. Yeah, you read that right. Regardless, whether its Rice or Notre Dame they face, the Aggies are too fast and too aggressive offensively to fail against either team. No one is equipped for that kind of shootout. That leaves Penn State. As I said, no one was prepared for a shootout, except maybe the Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions allowed more than one goal in just one game this season. That was a 4-3 victory on the road at Duke. But you still have to score to win. The Aggies have Jordan Day back and healthy now, and Meghan Streight is one of the best on-field defensive leaders I’ve seen at the college level. That’s tough to crack. I think the Aggies have a defense that can hold on long enough for their potent offense to bail them out. They’ll find themselves on a beach in Boca Raton.

Which Seeded Team is on a First-Round Upset Alert?

Penn State UniversityThis is just a very tough question for me. No offense to Houston Baptist, Buffalo, Georgetown, or Valparaiso, but it’s hard to put my finger on a team that can upset one of these seeds with any real certainty. But that is the beauty of the tournament. So, in true NCAA tournament madness fashion, I’m putting Penn State on upset alert. Stay with me here. Both Texas A&M and West Virginia are in excellent form right now, the latter not having lost since August. As for Notre Dame, well, Valpo hasn’t seen a team close to that level of talent all season long.

Thus, we are left with Buffalo, entering its first NCAA tournament after winning the MAC Championship. Who did they beat in said championship? Why, that would be Western Michigan, the very same Western Michigan that knocked off Marquette in the first round of last year’s tournament! It has to mean something. In all seriousness, Buffalo has prided itself on defense, allowing just four goals in conference play. Its backline has several veteran upperclassmen leaders. As for big-time competition? Well, they fell 5-0 to Virginia Tech in September, but at least they got a big name on the schedule. Add in Penn State’s recent falter to Northwestern in the Big Ten tournament and I think the argument really sells itself honestly. It’s not rocket science, it’s the tournament and anyone can be upset.

Featured Match

Sign me up for the battle of the Lone Star State. No, not Texas A&M versus Houston Baptist, or Texas Tech versus Prairie View in JJ’s part of the bracket. I’m pointing to Rice versus Texas. Let’s look at the Owls first; mid-major with a lot of offensive firepower. Scoring almost three goals a game, Lauren Hughes and Holly Hargreaves combined for 24 total goals this season. Rice also went undefeated against SEC teams, albeit it was wins against LSU and Vanderbilt along with a tie against Arkansas, and tied with fellow NCAA squad Dayton earlier in the season.

While its hard to romanticize the Owls less than impressive schedule, Texas is just the opposite. The Longhorns don’t shine offensively but have played some seriously tough competition in the Big 12 along with UCLA in nonconference play. They’ll have to find a way to shut down the Owls attack, which seems possible with the form the Longhorn defense took in the Big 12 tournament — giving up just one goal. Although inexperienced, Abby Smith is a talented keeper behind a veteran back line. This game could be gritty, and should be a great tactical matchup to watch.

Additional Thoughts

As the resident SEC junkie here at OGM, and the writer with Texas A&M’s quadrant, I think the state of the conference will be interesting to watch in this tournament. The conference has eight teams in the tournament this season, one shy of matching the Pac-12 for most teams this year, and half of them are seeded teams. Last year was an absolute disappointment for the SEC, with massive underdog Arkansas advancing furthest, but seemingly on par with results the conference has seen on the national tournament stage over the past 10 years. No SEC squad, while actually in the conference (see: Texas A&M in 2008), has advanced to the Elite Eight since 2003 when the striking duo of Ashley Kellgren and Megan McMillan lead the Florida Gators to the quarterfinals. Expectations are high, as they should be for the seeded SEC teams, and the underdog role is seemingly relished after the Razorbacks unthinkable run last year. Will the SEC rise up this year?

by Rachael Caldwell

 

[divider]Contributors[/divider]

Rachael Caldwell will be graduating from the University of Arkansas in 2015 with a degree in Broadcast Journalism and minors in Spanish and Business Management. Rachael played soccer from when she was three until her senior year of high school, where she was the captain of her state championship winning team. Rachael looks forward to writing more for Our Game Magazine and also writes about women’s soccer on her blog, rachaelfc.wordpress.com.

Glenn Crooks is the former Head Women’s Soccer Coach at Rutgers University. Crooks is currently a soccer commentator for the Big Ten Network, FIOS, and Sky Blue FC of the National Women’s Soccer League. He is also head coach of the Players Development Academy, N.J. Olympic Development Program, and a staff coach at U.S. Soccer National Training Centers, as well as a coach advisor for Polar USA. Follow Crooks on twitter at @GlennCrooks.

JJ Duke graduated from Rider University in New Jersey with a degree in Digital Media Studies. Although his playing days may have ended back in high school, he still prides himself on being a decent shot-stopper and an all-around fanatic of the beautiful game (fervent supporter of Manchester United and the founder of a Rider supporters group, the 206 Ultras). He was the Student General Manager at 107.7 FM The Bronc while at Rider and contributed to various local newspaper and Web sites in the Trenton, NJ, area of high school and collegiate sports including Tand Fish4Scores.com.

Ruth Moore serves Our Game Magazine as a College Editor and the magazine’s Design Editor. She holds a degree in Professional Writing from Kutztown University, freelances in communication design, and loves coffee.